Some studies are researching the future development of the care market up until 2030. No accurate considerations can be made for a longer period of time.
Accordingly, the total number of people in need of care will rise to about 3.5 million by the year 2030, which corresponds to an increase of about 575,000. The resulting demand for additional inpatient care places amounts to approximately 350,000, based on 2015 as the starting year. This is based on the so-called status quo scenario, i.e. it is based on the assumption that the proportion of care in nursing homes (home quota) remains the same. Despite the politically promoted principle ‘outpatient before inpatient’, however, it can be assumed that domestic care will no longer be guaranteed to the usual extent in the future because care by younger relatives is becoming more difficult due to the demographic trend and outpatient care cannot be provided as before due to the increase in the elderly population. Thus, it is safe to assume that the additional demand for inpatient care places should be higher than the figure above.