Investment focus on the nursing care market

DEVELOPMENT OF THE FUTURE NURSING CARE MARKET IN THE YEARS 2001 TO 2017

DEVELOPMENT OF THE
NURSING CARE MARKET
2001 – 2017:

Within 16 years, the demand in
all nursing care areas has risen
sharply due to demographic
change.

• Nursing home quota is
  around 30 % on average
• Number of people in need
  of care rises by 67 %
• Number of people cared for
  in senior care facilities rises
  by 52 %
• Number of nursing homes
  rises by 58 %

This rising trend will be sus-
tained for the next 15 years.

In the last 16 years, Germany’s care market showed a strong dynamic due to demographic development. So far, the development period up to 2017 has been statistically recorded. The following figures are based on the official nursing care statistics from 2001 to 2017, the recording of which has been required by law since the introduction of nursing care insurance and are calculated by the state statistical offices every two years.

From 2001 to 2017, the total number of people in need of care (including home care, outpatient care, and inpatient care) rose by almost 1,375,000. This corresponds to an increase of clients in need of care of around 67 %. There was a particular boost from 2015 to 2017 with a rise of 19.4 %, which can be attributed to the introduction of the new and broader concept of a need for long-term care based on the Care Strengthening Act II on 01.01.2017. The total number of those cared for in nursing homes increased by around 317,500 over the same period. The number of nursing homes rose by 5,315 to 14,480 nursing homes in 2017, which corresponds to an increase of 58%. Of these nursing homes, 42.6 % are privately owned, and 52.7 % are non-profit. Municipal or other public bodies operate the remaining 4.7 %.

Source: Official care statistics of the federal and state governments, Federal Statistical Office Wiesbaden

FORECAST REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NURSING CARE MARKET UP TO 2035

The development of the numbers of those in need of care up to 2030 can be derived from the 2017 care statistics. The total number of people in need of care in Germany was expected to rise to around 3.5 million by 2030. However, the 2017 care statistics already show approximately 3.4 million people in need of care.

In particular, according to recent forecasts, the number of people in need of care in Germany will significantly exceed the 4 million mark by 2035. Selected studies, such as the Care Report 2019, even assume that the number of people with statutory health insurance alone could increase to over 5 million by 2050.

Concerning demographic changes and the corresponding need for care, these forecasts will be accompanied by a significant increase in care services demand.

The need for home care will continue to rise sharply but can no longer be guaranteed to the extent which was customary up to now. On the one hand, this is because fewer younger relatives will be able to provide home care due to demographic development and increasing employment. On the other hand, there will be a generally greater need for inpatient care in the future due to an increase in older clients and the often associated need for full-time care.

THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN NEED OF CARE IN GERMANY IS FORECAST TO RISE TO OVER 4 MILLION BY 2035.

Source: Care statistics 2007-2017, Federal Statistical Office Wiesbaden; GWS DISCUSSION PAPER 2019 / 4, GWS mbH; IW-Report 33/18, Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft; Pflegeheim Rating Report 2020, RWI – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung et al.; Pflege-Report 2019, Klaus Jacobs et al.

FORECAST ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN NEED OF FULL INPATIENT CARE BY 2040

By 2040, the number of people in need of full inpatient care in nursing homes will increase to an expected 1.09 million to 1.41 million nationwide.

Source: Care statistics 2017, Federal Statistical Office Wiesbaden; GWS DISCUSSION PAPER 2019 / 4, GWS mbH; Pflegeheim Rating Report 2020, RWI – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung et al.

The proportion of clients needing inpatient care in nursing homes in relation to the total number of people in need of care will continue to increase until 2040.

The “outpatient before inpatient” principle continues to be politically promoted in Germany. However, in the future, the need for inpatient care places will be significantly higher than previously at an average of 30 percent. Although there is a steady increase in the number of new facilities, there is a steady increase in the occupancy rate of nursing homes and, according to a study by the Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung mbH (GWS), indicates an average occupancy of more than 92 %.

According to the forecasts of the RWI Pflegeheim Rating Report 2020, the number of people in need of full inpatient care in nursing homes will increase to 1.17 million by 2040 (if the scenarios examined are combined). This corresponds to an increase of 43 % compared to 2017 with around 818,000 people in need of full inpatient care. The range of scenarios on which this is based is between 1.09 million (+33 %) and 1.41 million (+72 %) people in need of care.

The services provided by inpatient care operators will continue to play an increasingly important role in ensuring high-quality care for clients in Germany.

FULLY INPATIENT NURSING CARE PLACE SUPPLY GAP BY 2030

The current number of new projects being built does not cover the need for new care places.

The forecast increase in numbers of those in need of full inpatient care results in a corresponding higher demand. Therefore, the provision of additional nursing care places is vital in the future.

Selected recent studies predict an additional need of between 157,000 and 340,000 additional inpatient care places by 2030 in the context of forecast calculations using various scenarios.

The Pflegeheim Rating Report 2020 specifically calculates an additional need for approximately 229,000 inpatient care places by 2030 and around 378,000 inpatient care places by 2040 compared to the status 2017.

This does not include necessary replacements of older care properties that are no longer in line with market standards.

By 2030, there is an additional forecast need for 157,000 to 340,000 inpatient care places across Germany.

Source: GWS DISCUSSION PAPER 2019 / 4, GWS mbH; Pflegeheim Rating Report 2020, RWI – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung et al.

Based on the forecasts of the Pflegeheim Rating Report 2020, there is a capital requirement for new investments of 28.1 billion euros between 2017 and 2030, which can be estimated to total 43.9 billion euros by 2040.

In order to renovate and maintain older and structurally weak existing senior care facilities, an additional 65.0 billion euros are predicted to be needed by 2040.

In total, there is an estimated nationwide total capital requirement of around 108.9 billion euros by 2040.

Source: Care statistics 2001-2017, Federal Statistical Office Wiesbaden; IRE|BS Studie PFLEGEMARKT 2030, International Real Estate Business School; Pflegeheim Rating Report 2020, RIW – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung et al.; Pflegeheim-Atlas Deutschland 2018, Wüest Partner Deutschland / W&P; PFLEGEIMMOBILIEN REPORT 2016/2017, CBRE GmbH et al.

Approximately 355,000 inpatient care places will be required between 2016 and 2030.

Care services will continue to be divided between home care by relatives, outpatient care and inpatient care in nursing homes. The following table illustrates the development and weighting of the individual federal states between 2009 and 2030.

Own representation on the basis of Bertelsmann Themenreport Pflege 2030, Pflegestatistik 2015, Statistisches Bundesamt Wiesbaden, 16/01/2017
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